Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
The rupee is expected to become more jittery and choppy in the near-term
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday pointed to a possible December interest rate "liftoff" but said rates would rise only slowly from then on to nurture the U.S. economic recovery.
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies and Axis Bank were the biggest gainers. Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finance were the laggards.
The US Federal Reserve, on Wednesday, announced a 0.25 per cent cut in benchmark interest rate, which is expected to increase capital flow from foreign institutional investors in the Indian stock market.
There are already some signs of stress in this market.
Rupee ends flat against dollar ahead of Fed policy outcome.
Of the eight RBI governors who have held office since the 1991 economic liberalisation, Bimal Jalan had the longest stint and S Venkitaramanan, the shortest. Current Governor Shaktikanta Das will overtake Bimal Jalan before completing his second term in December, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Gold is an excellent asset class for diversification and should be included in all long-term portfolios.
Month-end dollar demand from oil companies mainly affected the rupee value against the US currency, a forex dealer said.
64% of 800 investors polled think it will start this week but weak US data suggest it might not be aggressive.
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday surprised the markets by saying it will continue with its monthly $85-billion bond buying programme and wait for more evidence of growth recovery.
Some investors had speculated that the US central bank might put its plans on hold given the jitters overseas.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at over 7 per cent in the current fiscal year, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Wednesday, while observing that the growth rate should sustain next year too provided the forthcoming Budget does not have any negative surprises. Panagariya further said recessionary fears have been around for a while but so far neither the US nor the EU has gone into recession. "From the viewpoint of India, in terms of headwinds originating abroad, the worst is probably behind us," he told PTI.
Modi, on his maiden visit to the UNESCO World Heritage Site, first took the elephant safari in Mihimukh area of the Central Kohora Range of the park followed by the jeep safari inside the same range.
It is surprising that central bankers around the world have cautioned the US Federal Reserve against raising rates.
Indian stock markets are expected to be driven mostly by global factors this week amid a lack of local triggers and earnings season largely coming to an end, say analysts. Crude oil prices, rupee movement and US Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released this week will also influence the market sentiment. "With the earnings season behind us, global cues would largely dictate the trend in the coming week," Ajit Mishra, SVP - technical research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
It wants to wait for more evidence of solid economic growth before making any changes.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Vedanta, Coal India, ICICI Bank, PowerGrid, HCL Tech and Bajaj Finance, rising up to 2.65 per cent.
India builds up record FX after Fed hints rate hike in future.
The Indian stock markets' buoyant reaction to US Fed's decision to halt the interest rate hikes seems to reflect the growing clout of FIIs on the domestic bourses, which were falling like ninepins not long time back.\n
Global financial markets are wrong in hoping that the worst is over in geopolitical crises such as the Iran-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, in a recent note to investors called 'GREED & fear'. While most investors and the media are focused on United States (US) Federal Reserve policy and the "endless chatter" of Fed governors, Wood believes the news flow in the financial sphere "pales into complete insignificance" compared with the "tectonic shifts" going on in geopolitics.
India's prices are rising faster than many of its emerging market peers. The country's inflation print for May at 4.25 per cent is a marked reduction from the levels seen in May 2022 (7.04 per cent). However, even though the inflation rate remains within the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 per cent, with a 2 per cent margin on either side, it continues to be higher than China, Russia, and Brazil.
'With China falling out of favour, India is where investors see the demographic and digital dividend apart from the benefits of reforms playing out.' 'Your prime minister has also done a great job of sharing this story with the world.'
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investments in the domestic debt market surged in December, marking a 77-month high, that is, since July 2017. According to market participants, this significant uptick in FPI inflows can be attributed to the post-domestic policy outcome and the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the December policy. FPI inflows into debt stood at Rs 18,393 crore in December against Rs 14,106 crore in November, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited.
The Indian financial system is driven more by the domestic factors and "Fed rate cut is one of the triggers to review rates ", said Union Bank Bank of India chairman M V Nair.
At the same time, however, officials at the central bank lowered their projections for the long-run target interest rate, evidence of slightly diminished expectations for a nation climbing out of a severe crisis and struggling with demographic headwinds like declining labor force participation.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global cues, macroeconomic data announcements and the ongoing quarterly earnings are the major triggers that will dictate trends in stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked. "All eyes are on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for November 1, particularly due to the multi-year high levels of the US bond yields.
The broader NSE Nifty dropped by 48.65 points, or 0.45 per cent to 10,808.05 after shuttling between 10,773.55 and 10,833.70.
Dollar's strength and falling crude oil prices force downward revision of 2015 growth forecast.
The 30-share Sensex closed down 114 points at 28,622 and the 50-share Nifty ended down 37 points at 8,686.
While the markets have factored in a number close to 350 for the BJP and almost 400 for the NDA, 50 seats fewer could trigger a market correction
Investors' wealth fell by Rs 2.89 lakh crore in two days of market fall, with the BSE Sensex tumbling 796 points on Wednesday, amid weak global market trends ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Fresh foreign fund outflows and caution ahead of a host of interest rate decisions from global central banks also added to the overall bearish trend. Besides, the US Fed meeting, the BoE (Bank of England) and the BoJ (Bank of Japan) are also scheduled to meet this week.
Rate-sensitive sectors like banks, auto and realty witnessed strong buying demand in trades today
Market breadth continued to remain strong, with 1899 gainers and 674 losers on the BSEs.
In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 61.56/66, while the three-month contract was at 62.16/26.
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
The next policy meeting will be in mid-June, when the panel will be joined by Stanley Fischer, the former Bank of Israel governor whose nomination to the Fed's board was confirmed on Wednesday by the US Senate.
In a speech to the National Economists Club that echoed dovish comments by his nominated successor, Janet Yellen, Bernanke also said that while the economy had made significant progress, it was still far from where officials wanted it to be.
